The annual predictions for e-learning in 2011 are in at eLearn Magazine. Some will say this much of this is already happening – and it is for some – but corporate e-learning is still heavy into creating e-learning courses using rapid e-learning tools and web conferencing tools for live online training. The social/collaborative solution is still a line item on a planning sheet.

Some bullet points based on others predictions:

• More content curation
• Grassroot changes with new technologies in the  classroom
• Learning in the context of real work vs. artificial course
• Return to “just in time” model
• Informal learning will rise in importance
• Demise of course in favor of deeper uses of of technology
• E-learning with substantive purposes
• Gamification of learning
• More draconian policies and procedure limiting use of social media
• Killer augmented reality app will be developed
• Shorter programs
• Learners as designer
• Learning apps
• Video galore
• Continued unhappiness with LMSs
• More switching to cloud computing
• Adapting to iPad and tablets
• Learning apps as extensions vs. “all-in-one” solutions
• Apps replace e-learning courses
• Uptake of service to support persistent referencing of web resources
• Ambitious educators venture out more.
• Increased  concern for accreditation of e-learning from academic institutions
• Increased interest in teaching and learning theory
• More blending live (hybrid)
• More sharing of open resources
• Science of e-learning will continue to develop
• Augment reality gets easier
• Situated learning grows thanks to mobile
• Educational institutions actually change

I found the predictions encouraging in a “new moon rising” way. Mine…

Virtual classroom tools haven’t changed much over the past several years. That will change. Personal videoconferencing, telepresence technologies, tablets, and integration with existing systems will drive innovation in this area. We’ll see a flood of enterprise-level mobile apps developed. More outsourcing, especially to niche providers, will lead to more internal vendor management. We’ll see more stand-alone and integrated collaborative platforms designed to capture expert knowledge. On the horizon: alternate reality games and other social gaming.

Let’s see how I did last year…

We will see more “platform as a service” (PaaS) solutions with further computing enhancements to support the “micro” movement. Aggregators, mobile support, and real-time collaboration will bring a new level of complexity to the increasingly distributed, knowledge-driven workplace. As we process more fragmented information and sources, content curators will be needed to support transfer of learning. Tight budgets and renewed fear of travel will bring more innovative blended learning solutions that include online presence support, 3-D immersive environments, and gaming solutions. “Rogue” will give way to acceptance as companies reconcile the privacy and productivity concerns associated with social media. As a result, we’ll see the formation of richer online networks and communities. On the horizon … augmented reality.

Meh. Some progress…
I’m of the opinion that we won’t see sustainable changes (loss of the course mentality) until 2015.

In 2009, I did not have to search for food, go to war, or otherwise suffer or sacrifice as so many did. I did not have to look for work and I’m feeling pretty lucky to have a good job right now with great co-workers and thousands of connections with some of the best minds in the business. So, my “problems” are way, way insignificant but, they provide opportunities for making things even  better in 2010.

Suffice to say that looking back on 2009, I’m not chomping at the bit to re-live it.  It was much too chaotic for me and I’m not really the type that has to have everything in place. So it was big time CHAOTIC for a person OK with moderate chaos. Everything in moderation…chaos included.

The ASTD Big Question this month offers a nice opportunity to reflect, plan and predict.

Responses are to be made around three questions:

1. What are your biggest challenges for this upcoming year?
2. What are your major plans for the year?
3. What predictions do you have for the year?

I’ll get the prediction out of the way first. Here’s the one I wrote for the popular eLearn annual prediction article. I was limited to 100 words. In a word: complexity.

We will see more “platform as a service” (PaaS) solutions with further computing enhancements to support the “micro” movement. Aggregators, mobile support, and real-time collaboration will bring a new level of complexity to the increasingly distributed, knowledge-driven workplace. As we process more fragmented information and sources, content curators will be needed to support transfer of learning. Tight budgets and renewed fear of travel will bring more innovative blended learning solutions that include online presence support, 3-D immersive environments, and gaming solutions. “Rogue” will give way to acceptance as companies reconcile the privacy and productivity concerns associated with social media. As a result, we’ll see the formation of richer online networks and communities. On the horizon…augmented reality.

Now for the other two questions…

Biggest challenges for this upcoming year:

• Balance
• Control
• Discipline

Major plans for the year:

• Speak at some conferences
• Separate social media marketing stuff and the e-learning stuff
• Take two courses
• Take two family vacations
• Get digital assistant
• Embrace chaos, kick CHAOS in the shin

Now I need to put this into action.